Taro'ed with the same brush

Surely this time the LDP, which has governed Japan continuously since 1955 apart from a few short months in 1993, will be firmly thrown out of power? The Japanese economy is in the midst of its worst slump since the devastation of the Second World War, and support for the scandal-hit cabinet of current LDP Prime Minister Taro Aso barely breaks two-digits. But now the leader of the opposition DJP, Ichiro Ozawa, who had appeared almost certain to win a general election due by September, is himself facing a growing storm of corruption allegations.

The DJP will probably still win the election, since their support is a product of dissatisfaction with the LDP rather than enthusiasm for their own leaders and loosely articulated platform. But even if they win, the DJP is little but a clone of the LDP, based on factional alliances of convenience rather than ideological bonds. In the long run, govenment in such a manner isn't a particularly healthy way to run a democracy.

An optimist might hope that if Mr Aso and Mr Ozawa are ousted by their parties, a new generation of leaders will emerge to steer their parties into clear ideological waters. Alternatively, a decisive defeat for the LDP might cause it to collapse as its role as a sure ladder of patronage for the traditional elite is cast into doubt, leading in turn to a tectonic realignment of Japanese politics as fresh parties spring into life, perhaps pulling the DJP apart in the process. Unless that happenes, the much-heralded first stable non-LDP government in 50 years might well mark no significant break.