Tuesday 26 December 2006

Two turbid doves

Jordan's King Abdullah has invited the president of Palestine, Mahmoud Abbas, and his prime minister, Ismail Haniya, to the Hashemite Kingdom to discuss the escalating violence of the Palestinian territories. With Haniya's Hamas and Abbas' Fatah sliding into fratricidal conflict, the need for co-operation between the two main Palestinian factions has arguably never been greater, but, sadly, Western donor governments show no signs of encouraging such a move. Recent calls by Abbas for fresh parliamentary and presidential elections may have cajoled Hamas back to talks, but an actual poll is liable merely to exacerbate tensions. A quasi-constitutional move to dissolve parliament less than a year after Hamas took power looks like a naked Fatah power-grab. After fresh elections, either Hamas will retain a stake in power (and perhaps take the presidency too), or will lose it but still represent a swathe of Palestinian opinion, remaining an organisation without the involvement of whom a lasting settlement in the Middle East cannot be achieved.

Better, therefore, to entice Hamas into a unity government now, than deal with them embittered and either still ascendant or excluded from power. With Abbas and Haniya possibly meeting within the week, a positive step would be for donor governments to soften their stance on the three conditions currently attached to ending their boycott of the Palestinian Authority. For Hamas to renounce violence, recognise Israel and sign up to previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements is vital to medium term progress in the peace process, but it is naive to expect an organisation established to violently oppose Israel to simply capitualate in the face of international pressure. The enforced isolation of the PA has done little to weaken support for Hamas, and has rather driven Haniya, once considered something of a moderate, firmly into the hands of Iran. The integration of Hamas into a coalition which may not explicitly accept the three conditions, but at least does not explicitly oppose them, would be an achievement worth the loosening of (probably European) donor purse strings. Abbas and Haniya have the oppotunity to prevent a Palestinian bloodbath. But Western governments can help too.

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